Some not so good predictions
by Allen Newell and Herbert Simon, 1957
- Within 10 years, a computer will be world chess champion.
- Within 10 years, a computer will discover and prove
an important theorem.
- Within 10 years, a computer will write music that is
accepted by critics.
- Within 10 years, most theories in Psychology will be
computer programs.
On the other hand...
- Deep blue defeated Gary Kasparov, the world chess
champion, in a seven game chess match (1997)
- A computer at Argonne National Labs proved a
mathematical theorem that had been a conjecture
worked on by top mathematicians for 65 years. (McCune, 1996)
- Experiments in Musical Intelligence (EMI), a program created
by Steve Larson of the U of Oregon and composer David Cope, passed
a musical version of the Turing test when observers were not
able to distinguish EMI's compositions from Bach's. (1997)
- Numerous psychological theories have been embodied in computer
programs, including PARRY (Colby, 1975), EURISKO (Lenat, 1983), SOAR
(Newell, 1990), ACT-R ( NetTalk, Sejnowski, 1987).
Some recent predictions by Kurzweil (1987-88)
- A computer would defeat the human world chess
champion by 1998 and we'll think less of chess as a result.
- A worldwide information network linking almost
all organizations and tens of millions of individuals
will emerge. (WWW, 1994)
- In warfare there will be almost total reliance
on digital imaging, pattern recognition, smart bombs,
and other software-based technologies. (Gulf War, Yugoslav wars)
- In warfare there will be almost total reliance
on digital imaging, pattern recognition, smart bombs,
and other software-based technologies. (Gulf War, Yugoslav wars)
- Continuous speech recognition with large vocabularies
will emerge in the early 1990s (1996, Dragon Speak and others,
telephone translation, 1999)
- The technology for self-driving cars using special
sensors in the road will be available by the end of the 1990s.
Currently such cars are being tested in LA, Tokyo, London,
and other cities.